By Edwin Cooney
Election years are quite revealing, not only regarding the names of the victor and the loser, but also with regard as to who we are and ultimately why we are who we are! The result really and truly reflects our values, moods, political priorities, spiritual leanings, and domestic and foreign priorities.
As a student of history, I find that 2020 compels me to look back to America 100 years ago. The year 1920 was a momentous turning point of events in our history. Women got the vote, the "noble experiment" known as prohibition was launched, President Wilson's League of Nations was scrubbed in exchange for the newly elected President Warren Harding's concept of American normalcy. The details of historical events in 1920 are absolutely delicious to read and to ponder, but the point here is that national, political, and social events will occur in 2020 that will be worthy of comparison with 2001, 1980, 1968, 1933, 1932, and, of course, 1920. Above all, 1920 earned its place in history because it was a year of vital decision-making for better and for worse.
The elephant in the year 2020, will, of course, be the fate of President Trump. What is most compelling to contemplate is the anticipation of upcoming events, their effect on each other, as well as how all of those factors will affect our future.
The first question 2020 will answer is who will turn out to be the most influential decision makers? Might it be Fox News, angry conservative Christians, Democrats in Congress, or perhaps a centrist who is fed up with the progressive constituency? After four years in the White House, does Mr. Trump represent a dying generation soon to be replaced by a new multi-cultural America or have independent Americans moved from their expected progressivism back to the center of the political spectrum?
Another question up for consideration is who will emerge from 2020 as the most powerful decision-makers? In 1920, it was Congress, the Republican Party bosses, and, ultimately, President-elect Warren Gamaliel Harding, the genial Ohio Senator who was elected our 29th President on Tuesday, November 2nd, his 55th birthday. .
President Trump's strongest asset as well as his most serious liability lies in his reputation as both a leader and as a man. In 2016, many conservatives along with many independent voters accepted him more because of who he wasn't (specifically Hillary Clinton) rather than for who he really was: Donald John Trump, unpredictable, rude, profane, and totally self-indulgent to the edge of decency and beyond, including the law.
The year 2020 is less than a week old and President Trump has already made a decision that could mean war or peace, life or death, a stable balance of power in the Middle East, or disastrous chaos. It's my guess, as well as my fear, that President Trump's willingness to make incautious decisions is exactly what could return him to the White House. After all, Iran's Major General Qasem Soleimani (as one commentator put it) "died as he killed" thus being deeply deserving of President Trump's vengeful wrath. Reckless as he is, President Trump, is a better decision-maker for many than most of his recent predecessors. To many Americans, President Trump decides rather than presides, proceeds rather than balks, and acts almost as much as he talks. Still, there are very few indeed at home or abroad who consider Donald Trump of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C. a worthy forward-looking international statesman!
As we enter the 1920's centenary, America is changing just as it has done since it was conceived in 1776 and born in 1789 in the wake of the 1787 Constitutional Convention which was presided over by George Washington, guided by little James Madison and deemed worthy by old Benjamin Franklin. Even as we conscientiously look ahead, something will occur during any year that alters its course in a way that wasn't readily predictable at the outset.
On January 20th, 2001, as President George W. Bush became America's second presidential son to be inaugurated president, no one anticipated the tragedy of Tuesday, September 11th 2001. No one in 1980 anticipated the failure of a mission to rescue our hostages in Iran, perhaps the single most significant event that cost President Jimmy Carter the White House that November. At the dawning of 1968, who could have predicted the withdrawal of President Lyndon Johnson or the assassination of Robert Kennedy? Could the famous 100 days of the 1933 New Deal have taken place under Vice President-elect John Nance Garner had President-elect Franklin Roosevelt been assassinated in Miami on the night of Wednesday, February 15th, 1933? Most historians assert that Mr. Garner would have been unlikely to proceed as did FDR.
Would the 1932 presidential contest have been closer if the bonus marchers had not been gassed by the Hoover Administration during their march on Washington in July of 1932? As for 1920, there was some speculation early in the year that the former World War I food administrator under President Woodrow Wilson might well have been the Democratic presidential nominee were he to have declared himself a Democrat. His name was Herbert Clark Hoover and his prospective vice presidential running mate, who thought the idea might be quite wonderful, was young Franklin Delano Roosevelt!
The year 1920 was predictable in some ways, but not in every significant way. Each political season brings with it a surprise that not even the sitting president can predict!
RESPECTFULLY SUBMITTED,
EDWIN COONEY
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